source : 2012.12.12 THE FINANCIAL TIMES (ボタンクリックで引用記事が開閉)
When Tokyo equity traders do their morning reading in, there is one nugget of information to which they are sure to pay close attention: the level of the yen against the South Korean won. When the won rises against the yen, Japan’s broad Topix index is lifted on the perceived improvement of Japanese exporter competitiveness.
Recent form suggests good news for Japan bulls. The once-unstoppable yen has been Asia’s worst performing currency this year, down more than 7 per cent against the US dollar partly on expectations that the general election this weekend will usher in a change in how Japan battles entrenched deflation and shrinking exports. The Liberal Democrat party, which polls predict will be returned to power, has called for “unlimited” monetary easing.
The yen’s fall against the dollar pales in comparison to its tumble against the won: it has fallen 13 per cent against the Korean currency in the year to date.
Although the won remains far weaker against the yen compared with levels before the 2008 global financial crisis, a lasting shift in the relative value of the two could have profound implications for both economies.
Japanese exporters have long charged that the recent global dominance of their Korean rivals, such as Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor, has hinged on an underpriced won.
“A little inflation and a weak yen could be tremendously supportive for some Japanese businesses,” says Robert Horrocks, chief investment officer at Matthews Asia, an asset manager. “I think it could happen faster than people currently appreciate.”
The rise of the won has chimed with a more general flow of capital into Asia following the latest round of quantitative easing in the US in September. As a large, liquid market with a high credit rating, Korea has attracted particular interest.
Societe Generale has made the won, which is nudging 15-month highs against the dollar, its top pick among emerging market currencies, expecting gains to continue over the next year.
One big question has always been just how much appreciation in the won Seoul would tolerate. South Korea has a history of intervention in the currency market, which the finance ministry insists is to smooth volatility rather than halt gains. Authorities have also introduced a withholding tax on bond investments by foreigners and a cap on banks’ forward positions in the won to cool speculative demand.
The South Korean presidential election next week could herald a shift in policy makers’ attitudes toward a strong currency.
Both leading presidential candidates are promising more support for households and small businesses. Wai Ho Leong, an economist at Barclays, reckons that means the next administration is “likely to be more tolerant of won strength” as it seeks to help small companies that are more sensitive to import prices than those of exports. “Direct intervention will become more light-handed, and FX policy more laisser faire,” Mr Leong says.
For their part, large South Korean manufacturers play down the short-term impact of a rising won, saying they have hedged extensively against currency risk.
Meanwhile, bets on a weaker yen have accelerated as investors weigh the impact of more pressure on the Bank of Japan from a new government, along with the prospect of a new BoJ governor by April.
“We think?.?.?.?the BoJ will be compelled by the administration to inflate more aggressively,” says David Baran, Tokyo-based co-head of hedge fund group Symphony Financial Partners, describing the election as “a major turning point”.
To Yunosuke Ikeda of Nomura, however, the personnel changes are a sideshow; the fundamental balance of supply and demand is more important to the direction of the yen, says the head of FX strategy at Japan’s largest brokerage.
By the next fiscal year, four of the five biggest influences on the yen will be negative, says Mr Ikeda, citing the trade deficit, persistent outward foreign direct investment flows, and a likely increase in selling of yen assets by mutual funds and life insurers. Together, those flows imply net sales of Y7.3tn for the year, estimates Nomura ? a significant reversal from the Y3.5tn net buying in fiscal 2010.
Nevertheless, the path ahead may not be smooth. Paul Mackel, head of Asian FX research at HSBC, says Japan faces an “uphill battle to engineer yen weakness when other central banks are being very dovish”.
The flow of foreign capital into Japanese equity markets that follows periods of yen weakness is also likely to require Japan to be “more aggressive than ever” if the yen is to continue its downward trend.
source : 20112.14 中央日報 (ボタンクリックで引用記事が開閉)
１３日、日本・東京の中心部、丸の内の金融タウン。株式市場の開始を控え、主要投資運用会社のファンドマネジャーは外国為替取引の端末機で市場の動きをチェックした。中でも視線を固定させるのは韓国ウォン－日本円の為替レートだ。以前になかったこうした風景が最近日常化しているのは、当日の市況を予測するためだと、英フィナンシャルタイムズ（ＦＴ）が１３日報じた。
この１カ月間、国際外国為替市場でウォン高が急激に進み、これに伴って日本企業の株価が上がっている。ウォン－円為替レートと日本株式市場の動きが連動しているということだ。
ウォン－円為替レートは年初（１月９日）、１００円＝１５１４ウォンをつけた。韓国企業と競争関係にある日本企業が悲鳴をあげるほどの円高だった。０８年から始まったこうした流れは長く続いた。その日本円が先月から急激に値下がりしている。１３日には１００円＝１２８３ウォンまでウォン高円安が進んだ。年初に比べて日本円が韓国ウォンに対して１３％以上も値下がりしたのだ。
根本的な背景は日本の強力な円高解消の意志とみられる。日本財界は今年、日本企業がグローバル市場で活力を取り戻せない原因を「円高」のためとした。その中でも最大のターゲットが韓国ウォンだった。グローバル市場で競争関係にある韓国企業が、ウォン安を武器に強力な価格競争力を発揮しているということだった。ウォン－円レートは今年に入っても１００円＝１５００ウォン前後だったが、グローバル金融危機直前の０７年は１００円＝７５０ウォン水準だった。
日本銀行（日銀）は深刻な円高から抜け出すため、ゼロ金利と量的緩和を強力に推進した。米国中央銀行（ＦＥＤ）が９月、毎月４００億ドルの住宅ローン担保証券（ＭＢＳ）を購入する量的緩和策の第３弾（ＱＥ３）に動くと、日本も１０兆円の流動性を供給する強力な追加量的緩和カードを取り出した。ドルがグローバル市場にあふれて円高につながるという懸念から、日銀も日本円の大量放出に乗り出したのだ。
それでも円高は続いた。円ー米ドル為替レートは９月、１ドル＝７８円前後で推移し、１０月初めまでも８０円線にとどまった。こうした流れを決定的に変えたのは、右派性向の政治家として有名な日本自民党の安倍晋三総裁が取り出した「無制限量的緩和」と「マイナス金利政策」だった。１６日の総選挙で自民党の勝利が有力視され、日本の新首相になる可能性が高まった安倍総裁は、先月中旬、２、３％のインフレが発生するまで市中に流動性を無制限供給するとしてこのカードを持ち出したのだ。
白川方明日銀総裁は「現実性がない」として安倍総裁の構想に直ちに反論した。しかし市場ではついに円高の流れが変わり始めた。いわゆる「アベノミクス」の効果だが、これに伴って日本株式市場も反騰を始めた。日経平均株価は１３日も急騰し、６月４日の年中最安値（８２９５円）より１７％上がった９７４２円で取引を終えた。日本外国為替市場の専門家、豊島逸夫氏は「米国が円高につながる‘ＱＥ４’まで出したが、アベノミクスがより大きな力を発揮し、日本円が急激に落ちている」と述べた。
日本財界は日本企業の輸出競争力も改善すると期待している。瀕死状態にあった企業に「ウォン高円安」で起死回生の契機が用意されたという見方が出ている。これを反映し、１３日の東京株式市場では日本電子企業の株価が一斉に反騰した。輸出関連株のキヤノン・トヨタ自動車の株価も値上がりした。
ＦＴはヘッジファンド専門家の言葉を引用し、「米国と日本の量的緩和競争で韓国に外貨が流れ込み、ウォン高の続く可能性がある」と予想した。日本と米国の通貨戦争の間に挟まれ、韓国ウォンが急激に上がる可能性があるということだ。
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